What Might a Future Recession Look Like for MA Libraries? * 

In my last post, I walked you through my discovery of library usage (in terms of circulation and attendance) increasing during the Great Recession, with the Great Recession defined as the fiscal years 2009, 2010, 2011 using Michael Mabe’s 2023 study. So, what can we do with that information? Given that this is a blog series where I try to help libraries fortify themselves, I’d like to use that information to extrapolate what could happen if we encounter another recession in near future and what that might mean in terms of our needs and services.  

Let’s start with the basics of what we learned in my last post when I discovered that MA-specific data aligned reasonably well with the study I used as a model for my inquiry. To recap: Massachusetts libraries saw an average increase in circulation of 12.5% and an average increase in attendance of 32.4% during the Great Recession as compared to the 3 years before the recession. If those percentages were extrapolated to see a potential model for the future, what would that look like?*  

Circulation 

For the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, the total average circulation activity for MA libraries was 176,330 items. This includes books, periodicals, eBooks, other nonprint items such as Library of Things, basically anything that was transferred from the library (physically or digitally) to the hands of a patron. This also includes interlibrary loans (ILLs; items exchanged between libraries). If we apply the percentage increase in circulation that occurred in MA during the Great Recession**, the total average circulation over the next 3 years would be 198,437 items, or a potential increase of 22,107 items in a year.  

What does this look like in terms of library service?  

The average total circulation number of 176,330 works out to the library circulating about 483 items per day. This assumes that the library is open 365 days a year, which as libraries are municipal departments, is virtually impossible. So let’s factor in the 12 state holidays that libraries will observe, plus the day after Thanksgiving, and an extra 2 days for libraries to be closed*** for snow/weather conditions, building issues (no electricity, flooding, extreme heat, construction, etc.) or other situations out of most people’s control that may necessitate a library not opening to its patrons that day. When including days where a library will not be open to patrons, this increases the daily circulation for a given library right now to be 504 items per day.  

An increase of more than 22,000 items in a year works out to an extra 61 items each day.  If we include the library being closed for 15 days as I did above to calculate the current numbers, that number tics up to 63 items circulating per day. So, adding the potential increase in daily circulation, libraries may result in circulating 567 items every day they are open in the event of a significant economic downturn.  

Attendance 

The other major metric Mabe’s study examined to indicate library usage is how many people visited the library. The average attendance at any given MA library over the course of a year using FY2022, 2023, and 2024 data was 69,471**** This includes anyone who walked into the library for any reason including but not limited to: picking up a hold, asking a question, using public computers or Wi-Fi, sitting and reading a periodical, seeking shelter from the elements, attending a program, etc. If we use the percentage increase in attendance that libraries experienced during the Great Recession to project a possible increase in attendance for the future, that number goes up to 91,983 over the course of a year. This is a potential annual increase of 22,512 library visitors each year

What does this look like in terms of library service?  

The average total of 69,471 visitors per year that libraries have most recently welcomed, works out to 190 people each day. If we factor in library closures (the same 15 days I used for calculating circs above) that number becomes 198 people visiting a library each day.  

When you count the extra 22,512 people that an economic downturn may bring in, that is an extra 64 people per day coming into the library. Almost 92,000 people visiting over the course of a year works out to 252 people visiting the library every day. Again, factoring in time for libraries to be closed, that number increases to 263 people visiting the library over the course of a day, should we end up in a recession. 

Are we prepared for that?  

In order to answer this question, we need to look at several factors and each library is going to have to ask itself:  

  • Do we have enough staff to accommodate these potential increases?  
  • Will our building’s current condition accommodate the increase in foot traffic?  
  • Is our internet (public computers, Wi-Fi) equipped to handle increased usage?  
  • Do we receive ILL deliveries often enough if our circulation increases?  
  • What infrastructure do we have that might be scalable to accommodate potential increases like this?  

All of these questions will have at least one overarching question in common: Will we have the funding to help potentially more people? Every library in MA is different in terms of how well funded it is within its municipality but now may be a good time share this information with your closest library advocates (Trustees, Friends, Foundation members) to give them a framework of possibilities to work from.  

In my next post, I’ll start digging into metrics from MA that weren’t considered in Mabe’s study, but we have the data for and can give us further insight into this thought experiment. I will use the same basic logic and framework from Mabe’s study to see what our past may be able to tell us about our future when it comes to funding and staffing.  

* DISCLAIMER: This is a thought experiment to hopefully give libraries a framework from which to advocate for themselves using a foundation of past data. I am not a financial analyst, nor do I have any ability to predict the future. I do need to use the data available to me, however; which means I’m limited by what’s available from our library statistics. That data ends (for now) with FY2024 . Because of that, I can only really extrapolate what that might mean in terms of averages for FY2025, 2026 and 2027. This does NOT mean that there is any certainty about whether there will be an economic recession during those years. For more background on what prompted me going down this particular rabbit-hole, please see my previous post.  

** Because I only have the information from the previous recession, that is the number I’m using to extrapolate. If we encounter another recession, I fully recognize that the percentage may be different and that using the same number indicates that circumstances will be the same in the future, which is unlikely. But this can give libraries a baseline of something to work with to anticipate change and create a nimble plan of action to adjust based on what actually happens, should a recession occur.            

***Again, I’m working with averages here. Some libraries may not need to close for extenuating circumstances at all over the course of a year, some libraries may close more days.    

~ Al Hayden, MBLC Library Advisory Specialist

MBLC Service Update – March 13, 2025

MBLC Service Update 
March 13, 2025 

☝️ NEED TO KNOW 

Is the State Aid to Public Libraries Program affected by federal funding? 

State Aid Grant Awards that public libraries receive through the State Aid to Public Libraries are fully funded by the annual state budget line 7000-9501.  Not federal funding.  However, all staff who work in the State Aid Unit are funded in part through federal funding. — Cate Merlin, Head of State Programs 


🆕 NEW BLOG SERIES! Fortifying Your Library with Al Hayden

Welcome to our new blog series designed to help you fortify your library to protect you, your staff, and your patrons. A library is at its strongest when there are clear, unambiguous expectations for everyone to follow and one of the best ways to implement these expectations is through policy. To read more about library policy that creates stability for your staff and patrons, visit the MBLC Blog.    


🕙 MBLC Monthly Board Meeting on April 3 (Hybrid) 

Contact: Rachel Masse

The regular monthly board meeting of the Massachusetts Board of Library Commissioners is scheduled for 10AM on Thursday, April 3, 2025, at the Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, North Adams. This is a hybrid meeting. 


😎 Apply for a Summer Library Visit with Blades by March 24 

Contact: Rachel Masse, Celeste Bruno, June Thammasnong 

The Boston Bruins mascot, Blades, loves visiting libraries throughout the entire Commonwealth to help promote the importance of summer reading! No library is too small or far for Blades.  *If your library is interested in a summer visit with Blades, please submit an application by March 24.* Selected libraries will be notified by mid-April.  Final decisions on all visits are determined by the Boston Bruins staff. 

Blades library visits are 1 hour with all event materials provided by the MBLC and Bruins.  A typical visit includes a hockey themed story (read by librarian or local VIP), hockey trivia, activity stations (coloring, beading, button making), photos with Blades, and outdoor games (such as Jenga and Connect 4). 


📰 eBook Funding Increases but Access Constrained 

Contact: Jaccavrie McNeely 

The Massachusetts Board of Library Commissioners (MBLC) recently awarded $1 million in grants to Automated Networks for purchase of eContent for the Library eBook and Audiobook program (LEA). LEA gives Massachusetts residents access to eBooks, audiobooks, and more from 389 participating libraries. For more information on increased eBook funding, visit the MBLC website. 


📰 347 Libraries Certified to Receive Local Aid 

Contact: Cate Merlin, Jen Inglis 

Libraries certified in the Massachusetts Board of Library Commissioners’ (MBLC) State Aid to Public Libraries Program receive local aid funding to directly support public library services. For FY2025, 347 municipalities and their libraries are certified in the program and will share $20 million.  For more on FY2025 State Aid, visit the MBLC website. 


️📰 Explore Grants Awarded to 18 Libraries 

Contact: Lyndsay Forbes 

The Massachusetts Board of Library Commissioners (MBLC) is pleased to announce 18 libraries will receive a combined $93,000 as the FY2025 recipients of Explore Grants. The MBLC uses federal Library Services and Technology Act (LSTA) funding to provide Explore Grants that improve library services, collections, and programs.  For more on how federal funding makes a local impact with the Explore Grants, visit the MBLC website. 


📜 Community Voices: Curating Oral Histories and Audiovisual Collections (Recording now available online) 

Contact: Jess Colati 

Watch the recording online with password: Dh+0&2%D  

Whether your recordings are audio, video, “on tape,” or born digital, curating oral histories and other media introduces new and different questions around collecting, management, preservation, and use. What equipment do you need to capture or digitize? How do you calculate storage? Should you work with a vendor? Do you need permission to make people’s stories and historical recordings available in your library and online? View the recording online, and/or contact Preservation Specialist Jess Colati with any questions or to schedule a 1-on-1 appointment. 


🤝 Library Advisory Office Hours (Online) 

Contact: Al Hayden 

Monday, March 24 at 2PM – More Information & Zoom Link 

Monday, April 14th at 9AM – More Information & Zoom Link 

Open to all Directors, Trustees, Library Friends, and Foundation Members. They are designed to be an open-ended, safe space for questions and interaction among participants. Sessions will NOT be recorded, and chats will NOT be saved. Registration is not required; stop by anytime during the hour!  


🗨️ Preservation Office Hours (Online) 

Contact: Jess Colati 

Tuesday, March 25 at 10AM – More Information & Zoom Link 

Tuesday, April 8 11 at 10AM – More Information & Zoom Link 

Open to all interested in ensuring safe and stable storage and improving collection management for your library or organization’s preservation projects.  Connect with the MBLC’s Preservation Specialist, Jess Colati and colleagues around the Commonwealth that work to advance the protection of cultural collections during monthly office hours.  Sessions and chats are not recorded or saved. 


💬 State Aid Office Hours (Online)  

Contact: Cate Merlin  

Wednesday, March 26th at 2PM – More Information & Zoom Link  

Wednesday, April 16th at 9AM – More Information & Zoom Link  

Join Cate Merlin, Head of State Programs, and your fellow Library Directors, Trustees, and others seeking advice and answers as we embark upon the FY2026 budget season. Make sure your next budget, materials spending, and hours open fully meet State Aid requirements, and share ideas for budget strategies with others- registration is not required, and session and chats will not be recorded or saved.    


📈 Census Bureau Data 101: Resources and Services (Online) 

Contact: Al Hayden 

Tuesday, March 18 at 2PM – More Information & Zoom Link 

In this workshop you will learn about U.S. Census Bureau’s surveys and data resources available to help you understand, access, and use Census Bureau data, which can be helpful to libraries for community research and outreach, program planning, and resource allocation.  We will take a tour of the Census Bureau’s website and highlight areas that may be most useful to library staff and patrons and provide a demonstration on how to quickly pull up your community’s data profile. 


👭 Building Friendships Between People with and without Disabilities: A Train-the-Trainer Workshop (Online) 

Contact: Ally Dowds 

Wednesday, March 19 at 1PM – Registration & Zoom Link 

The ARC of Massachusetts will facilitate a 2-hour train-the-trainer workshop model to equip library staff with the skills and strategies needed to foster friendships between people with and without disabilities. This interactive presentation will provide practical tools to help integrate inclusive practices into your organization.  Registration is required. 


🖥️ B&T Connect Training (Online)  

Contact: Cate Merlin 

Thursday, March 20th at 10am – More Information & Zoom Link   

Thursday, March 27th at 2pm – More Information & Zoom Link 

The State Aid team is excited to introduce Baker & Taylor Connect to the Library community! B&T Connect is the data analysis and visualization counterpoint to B&T Collect. This training will walk you through the basics of creating and viewing data and charts using years of your library data (and data from all MA libraries), so you can better advocate for your libraries and communities. 


🌍 Breaking Bad Conversations about Climate Change with John E. Fernandez (Online)  

Contact: Andrea Bono-Bunker, Heather Backman 

Tuesday, March 25 at 1-2:30PM – Register here to attend! 

Please join us to learn how to better communicate about challenges facing our climate with Professor John E. Fernandez, a practicing architect, a full professor in the Department of Architecture at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and the Director of MIT’s Environmental Solutions Initiative. Professor Fernandez will leverage his experience engaging across diverse sectors of American society – the public sector, private sector, communities, and civil society generally – to offer ways in which to engage in non-confrontational, nonpartisan, and, most importantly, positive conversations about climate change. The aim of the talk will be to discuss cases in which conversations are likely to be derailed by current misunderstandings and explicitly confusing information and offer pathways toward, if not agreement, then purposeful enhancement of understanding and empathy. Professor Fernandez will also offer several information and communication assets developed over the past few years by the MIT Environmental Solutions Initiative.   

This webinar was planned by the Massachusetts Board of Library Commissioners,  the Massachusetts Library System, and the Vermont Department of Libraries.   


🌈Special Populations Deep Dive: Massachusetts Commission on LGBTQ Youth (Online) 

Contact: Ally Dowds 

Wednesday, April 2 at 2PM – Registration & Zoom Link 

Join us for a conversation and Q&A with the Massachusetts Commission on LGBTQ Youth to learn more about its Annual Recommendations for state agencies (including the MBLC!), the Safe School Initiative, and opportunities for trainings and technical assistance to schools across the state. The Commission advises others in state government on effective policies, programs, and resources for LGBTQ youth and will help connect you to resources and latest news to help libraries support youth in their communities.


👕18th Annual Bruins PJ Drive 

Contact: Rachel Masse, Celeste Bruno, June Thammasnong 

It’s not too late to join the Boston Bruins, DCF/Wonderfund and Cradles to Crayons to collect pajamas for kids in need until March 15. Together, we hope to collect 10,000 pairs of new PJs! 

For more details on how your library can participate, visit the MBLC Website for the Bruins PJ Drive Toolkit. 


💙 Participate in the Empowered by Libraries Campaign! 

Contact: June Thammasnong, Celeste Bruno 

🧰 Campaign Toolkit  

This year, the MBLC is encouraging libraries in Massachusetts to invite their patrons to share their story of how the library has helped them at LoveMassLibraries.com.  As part of the FY2026 Legislative Agenda‘s theme of Empowered by Libraries, their stories will demonstrate the importance and impact of our Commonwealth’s libraries to state representatives and legislators during the legislative budget season and beyond.  Learn more about how your library can participate with the Empowered by Libraries Toolkit. 


📅 Registration is open! Library Summit on Social Cohesion: April 11, 2025 from 10AM to 3:30PM at Devens Common Center 

Contact: Jack Martin (MLS) 

Registration & More Information 

In collaboration with the Massachusetts Library System (MLS) and Simmons University School of Library and Information Science, we are excited to announce the Library Summit on Social Cohesion!  This in-person event will provide a nourishing day for library staff to strengthen relationships within our profession and to support our important role fostering social connection in our communities.  The theme of the summit is: Together We Thrive: Libraries as Catalysts for Social Cohesion. Registration is required. 

Looking Ahead to 2020

Patrons exploring the Valente Branch of the Cambridge Public Library

By Rob Favini, Head of Library Advisory and Development at the MBLC

One of the most interesting parts of my job involves providing outreach and advisory services to librarians, directors, trustees and friends groups. It is a unique perspective that affords me a front row seat to what’s happening in libraries across the Commonwealth. With the start of the New Year, I’ve been thinking about the important trends that I will be following in 2020. I’d like to share my top 5 in no particular order.

EBOOKS

Libraries have been dealing with challenges around eBooks for quite some time now. First there were logistical problems to solve around platforms and policy. In 2019 a new set of challenges was brought to the forefront with MacMillan Publishing’s embargo of new title access to public libraries. With consumer eBook sales slowing and library eBook circulations exploding Macmillan is making the argument that libraries hurt book sales. The proposed embargo unified libraries in opposition and resulted in dozens of letters to Macmillan’s CEO John Sargent from Massachusetts libraries and organizations and an ALA national campaign and petition.  Libraries and publishers will be following this case very closely throughout 2020 as it may set a new industry standard.

LIBRARY AS SOCIAL CONNECTOR

To borrow Eric Klinenberg’s term from his book Palaces for the People, libraries continue to play the important role in maintaining social infrastructure, the glue that binds communities together. Across Massachusetts, libraries have become a driving force of social infrastructure with innovative programs and services that used to be unique but are now commonplace. Library programs and services around STEM, ESL, Citizenship, Wi-Fi hotspots, library of things, workforce development (the list can literally go on and on) are now common. In 2020 libraries will continue to adapt services to social needs as they address the ongoing opioid crisis, the 2020 Census, community food/housing insecurity, and a presidential election to name just a few.

LIBRARY TRUSTEES AND FRIENDS ARE NEEDED NOW MORE THAN EVER

The MBLC’s advisory services to library Boards of Trustees and Friends Groups covers a lot of territory from trustee orientation sessions to fielding inquiries on dozens of topics every day. The amount of activity speaks to the important role that these groups have in the promotion and advancement of public libraries. When Trustees and Friends are well informed and aligned with the goals of the library they become powerful advocates. As crucial as these allies are, there are many libraries with unfilled trustee seats, or open positions on their Friends’ boards. The health of Trustee and Friend boards directly impact the health of our libraries. Attracting active participation from all voices in the community is critical and pays big dividends. Current Trustees, Friends, and library staff should always be on the lookout for the next great addition to their boards.

THEY DIDN’T TEACH ME THAT IN LIBRARY SCHOOL!

The list of skills needed to run a successful library seems be growing at an accelerated pace. In addition to the demands created by innovated programing mentioned earlier, library managers are increasingly finding themselves in uncharted territory. Today’s library manager has to have expertise in human resources management, budget analysis, local political/regulatory process, environmental science and public relations. To make things even more complicated, every municipality is unique so even library managers with experience are challenged. The good news is that efforts in 2019 by the Massachusetts Library System with their Library Director Round Table series and the Massachusetts Library Association’s Leadership and Management Section have started a conversation and support network for library directors and managers.

LATE FINES

2019 saw a growing number of libraries go fine free in Massachusetts and across the country. Earlier in the year the American Library Association passed a resolution declaring library fines an economic barrier to library access and a form of social inequity. Many libraries have come to the conclusion that in their communities fines are not an effective way to ensure that materials are returned in a timely manner, and many make the argument that fines have become a barrier to library access disproportionately impacting younger and lower income users. Recent libraries that have announced going fine free include the Robbins library in Arlington, The Jones Library in Amherst, the Morse library in Natick, and the Burlington Public Library. In addition the Boston Public Library announced the abolishment of fines for library users under the age of 18. This is a trend that is picking up momentum, and will no doubt continue in 2020.

How are these trends impacting your library? What’s on your radar for 2020? Leave a comment and join in the conversation!